Who to ignore (3 bullshit filters)

By Gabriel and Ernest Oppetit Unforseen shit happens. 9/11, the 2008 crash, Brexit, Trump, COVID-19... you know the story.  These events surprised us because our information diets are dominated by people who didn’t see them coming. Many of these people are paid for sounding good (or protecting a certain interest), not for being right, so … Continue reading Who to ignore (3 bullshit filters)

Highlights: Superforecasting by Phil Tetlock

From the book cover: In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, … Continue reading Highlights: Superforecasting by Phil Tetlock